Lyn Alden Believes Bitcoin Price Is Difficult to Predict Due to the Current Macro Situation

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Bitcoin (BTC) price might be difficult to predict due to the current macroeconomic situation. This is according to Lyn Alden, one of the most respected macro analysts in the world. During a conversation with Kitco News during the Bitcoin 2022 conference, she stated that governments are trying to tighten the monetary market in a moment in which growth is not so high. 

Lyn Alden Talks About Bitcoin and the Macroeconomic Situation

During this conversation, Lyn Alden talked about how governments are trying to tighten in a decelerating economy. However, this is something that could create problems for the economy and population. She compared monetary tightening with PMI indicators moving higher – which gives governments the possibility to reduce their stimulus – and monetary tightening with an economy that seems to be experiencing stagflation. 

One of the indicators that Lyan Alden is looking at is consumer sentiment. She explained that we are close to lows not seen since 2009. This is despite the fact that unemployment has also been close to all-time lows. Another thing to take into consideration is that despite the fact that employers are receiving higher wages, inflation has been higher than the increase in their salaries. 

When it comes to Bitcoin and different economic sectors, she said that she is bullish about Latin America, Gold and Bitcoin for the coming years with the current inflation levels. Lyn Alden mentioned that the war in Ukraine is currently adding more pressure on inflation as it was getting close to its top. Furthermore, she considers that the coming years will see a stabilization in inflation which will be persistent. 

About her price outlook for Bitcoin, she said that the price outlook for the coming months is very uncertain. Most Bitcoin bull run activity occurs during rising PMI environments. However, when PMI starts moving lower, Bitcoin also experiences losses. 

On that matter, she mentioned:

“So, in the next six months, [Bitcoin’s price action remains] very uncertain. If you look at rising and falling PMI environments, most Bitcoin bull run activity occurs during rising PMI environments. In declining PMI environments, that’s when Bitcoin has historically suffered.”

Finally, she has also explained that Bitcoin has never encountered a stagflationary environment in developed markets. This is a new variable that should be analyzed and taken into consideration when it comes to understanding what could happen with Bitcoin in the coming months as well.

Jonathan Gibson

Jonathan Gibson