This article was updated on the 24th of August to reflect current Tron news and price analysis.
Tron’s busy summer has not stopped. Months after making headlines with the launch of its mainnet and acquiring BitTorrent, the Tron news has kept rolling.
Three big items are moving TRX prices right now: the final lock-up of its 27 “super representatives”, an integration with Coinpayments, and the countdown to its Virtual Machine (TVM) launch.
As it stands, TRX sits at #12 in total market cap with a coin price near $.021. Despite the good news for the coin, it is up just 1% in the last 7 days and down 20% over the last 30 days. It sits at less than half of its price from January 1st.
Still, Tron has made moves to position TRX in a way that could see dynamic price increases. And in the next 5 months, TRX could trade as high as $.065–or six and a half cents. That’d be a strong recovery from this point, but just a bit above where it was in May 2018. This would give TRX a market cap of over $4.2 billion, a bit higher than EOS is at the current moment. TRX has more positive momentum and news than EOS, so this seems right.
We’ll look at the latest Tron news and how it contributes to this prediction.
Tron Super Representatives Are The New Guardians
Tron took a big step this week by finalizing the election of its 27 super representatives; a move that gives the coin its governance structure forever going forward. Among the super representatives are Justin Sun (CEO), BitTorrent, and several grassroots groups with a focus on bringing TRX to the masses.
A Tron Super Representative becomes the guardian of the coin’s future, by means of voting for new product decisions and implementations. For their work, “SRs” are given 32 TRX per block forever going forward; and each will transparently report on their decisions and their own Tron-focused innovations (like SR SesameSeed creating Seedit which allows Twitter users to send TRX).
For TRX holders, they can use Tron’s main website to participate within this structure too. TRX holders that move coins to the site can “freeze” them for three days which grants voting powers, enabling them to vote with their favorite SRs. And, in turn, SRs typically provide these voters with a bonus (many, like TronSpark provide up to 70-80% of their rewards back to the community). With TRX voters earning this passive income, TRX coins now have increased value to have and to hold.
What does this mean for the price? Well, it means that Tron now has a talented group of SRs officially dedicated to it reaching new heights. But it also means that TRX holders, by way of voting, can start to earn income by freezing their Tron. TronSpark has a calculator on its site to illustrate this point.
As the world waits for Tron to become the currency of a decentralized internet, investors are earning TRX passively—creating actual ROI for TRX in a dividend-type system. That’s big!
CoinPayments Adds Tron, Opening It Up To 2 Million Stores
Next, Tron has been added to the CoinPayments platform; enabling TRX holders to use the currency with over 2 million merchants internationally. CoinPayments was a first-of-its-kind payment processor that allowed altcoin holders to use their holdings commercially, and the addition of TRX is a boost to that coin as well as the CoinPayments platform. A full list of CoinPayments merchants can be found on its website, as well as the other coins it supports.
This is just another step toward usability for the TRX token; the more of which creates higher demand for investors, shoppers, and internet users to hold it. In May, though it was a different crypto market at that time, Verge saw a serious boost for its Coinpayments listing, an effect that may come later for Tron.
If Tron can keep earning partnerships like this—ones focused on TRX’s adoption in the real world—it starts to earn more of an edge over competing top-20 coins. This positions it to be a prime candidate for new fiat exchange gateways, a benefit discussed later in this article.
Tron Virtual Machine Launches August 30th
Lastly, Tron holders are looking ahead with glee as we’re just a week out from the launch of Tron’s Virtual Machine (TVM)—the real starting place of the Tron ecosystem. With this, builders will be able to make applications in TVM, run ETH-based apps, and the Tron foundation will work to expand its transactions per second (TPS) to show off Tron’s speed against competitors. There will be a live stream and celebration for the launch of TVM, a landmark day for the coin.
TVM is the bread and butter of Tron. It’s the engine on which Tron will run and in which TRX will be used. Think of it as the App Store or Google Play store equivalent for Tron (other articles have called it the “McGyver” of crypto). It is where creators can use this technology to create the future. Eyes will be on this launch and what pours into the TVM in the first few weeks. A successful launch is vital; and will play into investors looking at TRX.
Long term, if Tron can use its TVM to prove that its technological enablement is on par with Ethereum, it will show investors that the value of the two coins deserves to be closer together (Ethereum will feature smart contracts, of course, but Tron can host those through TVM). Ethereum, by market cap, is 20x more valuable than Tron, a distance that could be equalized with positive projects positioned in the Virtual Machine.
Short-Term TRX Price Analysis
This chart shows a TRX Fibonacci trace, bouncing from an August low of >300 Satoshis to a retracing bullish signal of over 700 Satoshis. It gives a technical view of TRX’s price moving toward the cents range and beyond.
The bounce is important here at Tron has seen downward price action for almost all of August. Investors and holders want to know where the “bottom” and this retracement shows that we may have hit it. A bounce back could be forthcoming, and the question is how high TRX can ride it. Will the Super Representative and Virtual Machine show Tron is ready to impress the crypto world and gather new investors?
Long-Term TRX Price Factors To Consider
The long-term analysis looks at a few different factors. Let’s start with price movement. TRX ICO’d at about $0.0019, a long way down from where it stands today, though a much longer way down from the coin’s all-time high of nearly 30 cents.
Tron had one of the more mega-ICOs; bringing in $70 million USD. As of May, there were still over a million wallet addresses holding TRX, proof that many have held on from the beginning and new holders have joined.
The next place to look is volume. TRX volume is strong and steady. It sees volume of about $200 million each day, give or take, and it’s spread across the two major trading channels: USDT trading and BTC trading. Mixed in there is ETH trading, but the highest of that (on this particular day) is only $5 million of the $200 million (2.5%) and fiat trading, the highest of which is paired with KRW (no surprise, Koreans are usually the highest fiat-traders). But even this is only $6.5 million. A very small portion.
So, fiat trading is still extremely unrepresented here. That means that TRX has an enormous opportunity to crack into more fiat selling; whether it be more KRW or TKY, or, more importantly, fiat transactions from China, the U.S., and Europe. Once this happens (be it Coinbase perhaps for USD trading), we should see a spike in volume (not all buying of course) that will likely lift TRX price.
China’s Deep Pockets and Tron
China is a great unlock with Tron. Simply put, they aren’t in the game right now (Chinese Yuan is estimated to be at 1% of total BTC trading). We aren’t seeing CNY pairing with TRON, or other coins, and we aren’t seeing Chinese firms truly started to get invested into the coin.
Tron is part of the big Chinese three to look at; along with NEO and VET. If and when (and it should be ‘when’) China does start to warm up to crypto, it will look to boost its national projects before international ones. You can see this with VET’s announcement of working with the Chinese government. Tron could see the same benefits.
China’s venture capital scene has exploded like never before. You can see charts and a write-up here, but the short is that VC firms and large-cap Chinese tech companies are pumping money into startups. Turning on the China switch could change Tron overnight. Even a hint that China is going to allow money—personal investors and institutional—back into crypt could double Tron price overnight.
Longer Term Tron Technical Analysis
In addition to the reasoning above, monthly charts provide compelling analysis for TRX price shooting up past the $.05 mark and into the territory where we may see the $.065 call in 2018.
This chart also shows some support near the bottom for Tron, with a call to establish long positions near the 500 satoshi level. We’re quite down from there now, but a bounceback could put TRX right back at or above 500 satoshis, especially if it moves (on the strength of its news) without much BTC movement.
As another bullish sign, Walletinvestor—though not the most reliable technical analysis by any means, has a chart that shows TRX increases through the remaining months of the year with an end of 2018 USD targeted of just over 5 cents.
The conclusion here is that Tron has proven itself to keep spinning out positive news for TRX price and usage. The market has hampered the effect of these in 2018, but that won’t last forever. If the market breaks open, Tron is uniquely positioned to see the kind of growth that can see it double or triple in the time left in 2018. Time will tell, but the team can do their best to keep showing the value of Tron in the meantime.
Disclaimer: Price predictions are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Your transfers and trades are at your own risk.