[updated Feb 25, 2019] Ever since the launch of the mainnet and acquisition of BitTorrent, last year, positive developments keep coming Tron’s way that promise to have positive influence over the price of TRX over the next few months.
So far, three big items have been moving the price of TRX and will continue to influence it in the near future. They include: the imminent hard fork of the Tron Network, integration with Coinpayments, and the countdown to its Virtual Machine (TVM) launch.
As it stands, TRX sits at #9 in total market cap with a coin price near $.024. Despite the good news for the coin, it is down just 3.69% in the last 7 days and over 17% in the past month.
Still, Tron has made moves to position TRX in a way that could see dynamic price increases. And in the next 5 months, TRX could trade as high as $.065–or six and a half cents. That’d be a strong recovery from this point, but just a bit above where it was in May 2018. This would give TRX a market cap of over $4.2 billion, a bit higher than EOS is at the current moment. TRX has more positive momentum and news than EOS, so this seems right.
We’ll look at the latest Tron news and how it contributes to this prediction.
Tron Network Upgrade
The price of Tron (TRX) is expected to rise with an imminent network upgrade around the corner. TRX is set hard fork on February 28, and according to Justin Sun, the platform’s founder, the fork will feature four main upgrades.
In a tweet made on Feb. 24, the new features will include; multi-sig and account management that is institution ready, the dynamic energy adjustment to real-time performance, better virtual machine safety and events server for dApps and 50 percent performance upgrade from the current levels.
The multi-signature and account management upgrade will provide more security for transactions on the blockchain. In another tweet, Justin Sun notes that the update is what is needed for institutional investors to get involved and Tron’s recent partnership with BitGO will make the platform institution ready.
The dynamic energy management system upgrade will improve the blockchain efficiency and streamline the networks performance and energy management.
The third upgrade would focus on performance even though there are no specifics on how 50 percent improvement will be achieved.
However, Tron has so far managed to outperform Ethereum when it comes to transaction speeds.
The fourth upgrade will see some security enhancements and improvements on the Tron Virtual Machine that caters for dApp developers. There will also be the launch of an event server.
These upgrades are expected to positively influence the price of Tron over the next few months, and this should be exciting for all crypto investors.
CoinPayments Adds Tron, Opening It Up To 2 Million Stores
Next, Tron has been added to the CoinPayments platform; enabling TRX holders to use the currency with over 2 million merchants internationally. CoinPayments was a first-of-its-kind payment processor that allowed altcoin holders to use their holdings commercially, and the addition of TRX is a boost to that coin as well as the CoinPayments platform. A full list of CoinPayments merchants can be found on its website, as well as the other coins it supports.
This is just another step toward usability for the TRX token; the more of which creates higher demand for investors, shoppers, and internet users to hold it. In May, though it was a different crypto market at that time, Verge saw a serious boost for its Coinpayments listing, an effect that may come later for Tron.
If Tron can keep earning partnerships like this—ones focused on TRX’s adoption in the real world—it starts to earn more of an edge over competing top-20 coins. This positions it to be a prime candidate for new fiat exchange gateways, a benefit discussed later in this article.
Tron Virtual Machine Launches August 30th
Lastly, Tron holders are looking ahead with glee as we’re just a week out from the launch of Tron’s Virtual Machine (TVM)—the real starting place of the Tron ecosystem. With this, builders will be able to make applications in TVM, run ETH-based apps, and the Tron foundation will work to expand its transactions per second (TPS) to show off Tron’s speed against competitors. There will be a live stream and celebration for the launch of TVM, a landmark day for the coin.
TVM is the bread and butter of Tron. It’s the engine on which Tron will run and in which TRX will be used. Think of it as the App Store or Google Play store equivalent for Tron (other articles have called it the “McGyver” of crypto). It is where creators can use this technology to create the future. Eyes will be on this launch and what pours into the TVM in the first few weeks. A successful launch is vital; and will play into investors looking at TRX.
Long term, if Tron can use its TVM to prove that its technological enablement is on par with Ethereum, it will show investors that the value of the two coins deserves to be closer together (Ethereum will feature smart contracts, of course, but Tron can host those through TVM). Ethereum, by market cap, is 20x more valuable than Tron, a distance that could be equalized with positive projects positioned in the Virtual Machine.
Short-Term TRX Price Analysis
Here is a short chart of TRX by TradingView user Alex Schram that predicted a spike in price and a sudden drop over the past week. However, the author predicts there could be a long term bull buy that will probably take place at either point D1 or point D2 depending on the buyer’s risk appetite.
Long-Term TRX Price Factors To Consider
The long-term analysis looks at a few different factors. Let’s start with price movement. TRX ICO’d at about $0.0019, a long way down from where it stands today, though a much longer way down from the coin’s all-time high of nearly 30 cents.
Tron had one of the more mega-ICOs; bringing in $70 million USD. As of May, there were still over a million wallet addresses holding TRX, proof that many have held on from the beginning and new holders have joined.
The next place to look is volume. TRX volume is strong and steady. It sees volume of about $200 million each day, give or take, and it’s spread across the two major trading channels: USDT trading and BTC trading. Mixed in there is ETH trading, but the highest of that (on this particular day) is only $5 million of the $200 million (2.5%) and fiat trading, the highest of which is paired with KRW (no surprise, Koreans are usually the highest fiat-traders). But even this is only $6.5 million. A very small portion.
So, fiat trading is still extremely unrepresented here. That means that TRX has an enormous opportunity to crack into more fiat selling; whether it be more KRW or TKY, or, more importantly, fiat transactions from China, the U.S., and Europe. Once this happens (be it Coinbase perhaps for USD trading), we should see a spike in volume (not all buying of course) that will likely lift TRX price.
China’s Deep Pockets and Tron
China is a great unlock with Tron. Simply put, they aren’t in the game right now (Chinese Yuan is estimated to be at 1% of total BTC trading). We aren’t seeing CNY pairing with TRON, or other coins, and we aren’t seeing Chinese firms truly started to get invested into the coin.
Tron is part of the big Chinese three to look at; along with NEO and VET. If and when (and it should be ‘when’) China does start to warm up to crypto, it will look to boost its national projects before international ones. You can see this with VET’s announcement of working with the Chinese government. Tron could see the same benefits.
China’s venture capital scene has exploded like never before. You can see charts and a write-up here, but the short is that VC firms and large-cap Chinese tech companies are pumping money into startups. Turning on the China switch could change Tron overnight. Even a hint that China is going to allow money—personal investors and institutional—back into crypt could double Tron price overnight.
Longer Term Tron Technical Analysis
Here is a long chart by TradingView user KryptoLOgCZ that indicates bullish support for Tron ahead of the hardfork. The chart predicts that the price of TRX is likely to peak in the coming months after the network upgrade.
The conclusion here is that Tron has proven itself to keep spinning out positive news for TRX price and usage. The market has hampered the effect of these over the past year, but that won’t last forever. If the market breaks open, Tron is uniquely positioned to see the kind of growth that can see it double or triple in the next few months. Time will tell, but the team can do their best to keep showing the value of Tron in the meantime.
Want to learn more about TRON? Read about how Tron’s transactions have passed other major coins in our in-depth article. You can also read about how Tron’s price was boosted earlier this year with the rumor of a big partnership.