Key Takeaways
- Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg believes there’s a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin will hit the $140K-$150K range before a bear market begins next year.
- McClurg’s prediction is based on the continued influx of institutional capital from Spot Bitcoin ETFs and treasury firm purchases.
- His cautious outlook contrasts sharply with other prominent Bitcoin advocates like Michael Saylor and Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, who predict a permanent end to bear markets.
Is the current bull run a sustainable, multi-year phenomenon, or are we approaching a final peak before a deeper correction?
According to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg, the latter scenario is more likely. In a recent interview, McClurg stated his belief that there is a “greater than 50% chance” Bitcoin will reach a price of $140,000 to $150,000 this year, representing a 19% to 27% gain from its current level of $117,867.
However, he warned that this peak would likely precede the return of a bear market in the coming year.
McClurg is Fearful of the Economy Right Now
McClurg’s cautious outlook is rooted in his broader economic fears. He expressed a strong lack of confidence in the current macroeconomic landscape, particularly concerning the U.S. Federal Reserve.
He believes the Fed should have already begun cutting interest rates at its last two meetings and anticipates a series of cuts in September and October.
This sentiment is largely in line with market expectations, as the CME Watch Tool currently prices in a 92.5% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.
An Entirely Different Forecast
McClurg’s outlook stands in stark contrast to that of other well-known Bitcoin advocates, who believe the days of cyclical bear markets are over.
Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy, has been one of the most vocal proponents of this new paradigm.
During a June interview, Saylor famously declared, “Winter is not coming back.”
“If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” Saylor said, emphasizing the binary nature of his long-term conviction.
Bitcoin Holds Steady as Macroeconomic Events Loom
Despite these divergent forecasts, Bitcoin has been remarkably stable, consolidating horizontally through the weekend.
The analysts at Bitcoin Archive reinforce this idea, posting that Bitcoin’s volatility is “near all-time lows,” comparing it to gold and noting that institutions are “compressing Bitcoin’s volatility.”
Adding another layer to the discussion is Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. While he is bullish on Bitcoin’s future, he has a different take on the million-dollar price target. He recently stated that a $1 million Bitcoin next year “wouldn’t be a victory,” but rather a sign that the U.S. economy is in “such a shitty place domestically.”
Final Thoughts
The road ahead for Bitcoin is marked by both tremendous potential and significant uncertainty. While the institutional drivers are undeniable, the question of whether a bear market will return is still fiercely debated. Investors should weigh these differing perspectives carefully and remain vigilant of both technical indicators and broader macroeconomic trends.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is “horizontal consolidation”?
Horizontal consolidation, or “trading sideways,” is a period when an asset’s price moves within a narrow, horizontal range without a clear upward or downward trend.
What is the CME Watch Tool?
The CME Watch Tool is a resource that provides a real-time probability of future interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve, based on CME Group’s fed funds futures contracts.
What is a “treasury firm” in crypto?
A treasury firm is a company that holds significant amounts of cryptocurrency on its balance sheet, typically Bitcoin or Ethereum.
