Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) shares have fallen roughly 80% from their 2025 initial public offering (IPO) price, but a sharp rebound is bringing fresh attention to whether the crypto exchange could eventually become an acquisition target.

GEMI closed at $5.81 on September 18 after jumping 31.15% in a single session. The stock remains far below its $28 IPO price from September 2025, while the company’s market cap has fallen to roughly $753 million.

Notably, there is no evidence that Gemini is currently negotiating a sale. The renewed discussion follows a proposal from ARK Invest digital asset research director Lorenzo Valente, who argued last month that Hyperliquid could potentially acquire Gemini and use its regulated infrastructure as a US gateway. Notably, CoinDesk reported that Hyperliquid has not indicated it is pursuing such a transaction.

Gemini Stock Remains About 80% Below Its IPO Price

Gemini went public in September 2025 at $28 per share. At its September 18 closing price of $5.81, GEMI was approximately 79% below that offering price despite the latest one-day rally. The shares had traded as low as the mid-$3 range in August before recovering during the past month.

The company’s market value has also fallen sharply, with Gemini’s current market capitalization at approximately $753 million, compared with about $4 billion at its earlier peak.

Gemini Metric	Reported Figure
September 2025 IPO price	$28
Sept. 18, 2026 close	$5.81
Decline from IPO price	~79%
Sept. 18 daily gain	+31.15%
Current market capitalization	~$753M
Previous peak market value	~$4B

Table 1. Gemini Stock and Market Value

The stock’s decline has made the US-based crypto exchange considerably cheaper on a market-value basis, but the company’s operating trends remain an important part of any acquisition discussion.

Gemini’s Exchange Business Has Been Shrinking

Gemini’s core spot exchange business has lost significant trading activity.

Q2 exchange revenue fell 38% year over year to approximately $12.5 million, while spot trading volume declined 66% to $3.8 billion. Assets held on the platform also dropped to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion. That means platform assets fell by more than half over the reported period.

Gemini has been expanding beyond basic spot trading through products including custody, staking, derivatives, and its credit card business. Total Q2 revenue was $45.5 million, up 37% year over year, showing that company-wide revenue trends differ from the contraction in the exchange segment alone.

The declining spot business is therefore only one part of Gemini’s value.

Regulatory Licenses Could Be More Valuable to a Buyer

The acquisition argument centers heavily on infrastructure rather than trading volume.

Gemini operates through regulated entities and has spent years building licenses, custody systems, compliance operations, and customer relationships. These assets could be difficult and expensive for another crypto company to replicate organically.

A company seeking a regulated US presence could potentially acquire that infrastructure instead of applying for licenses and building compliance systems from scratch.

Custody is another possible attraction, as Gemini already operates institutional custody infrastructure that it could integrate into a broader trading or financial platform.

Gemini’s core exchange technology may offer less differentiation than competing trading platforms, making its regulatory footprint and existing customer relationships more valuable as strategic assets.

Hyperliquid Has Been Mentioned, but There Is No Active Bid

Much of the current takeover discussion traces back to Valente’s proposal involving Hyperliquid.

He suggested that the perpetual futures platform could use Gemini as a regulated entry point for products such as perpetual contracts and prediction markets in the US.

However, the idea remains speculative, as there is no indication that Hyperliquid has submitted an offer, entered negotiations, or publicly announced plans to acquire Gemini. 

Following GEMI’s sharp September 18 rally, the rising share price does not confirm acquisition talks; the stock price rose on a rumor.

The Winklevoss Twins Control Most of Gemini’s Voting Power

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss control approximately 94.5% of Gemini’s voting power.

Concentrated control could simplify negotiations because a potential transaction would not require persuading a widely dispersed shareholder base.

It also means a sale would effectively depend on the founders’ support.

For an outside buyer, Gemini’s depressed market cap may make a transaction financially more achievable than it was closer to the company’s public-market peak, but the current valuation alone does not indicate that the founders are willing to sell.

Citi Had Already Turned Bearish on GEMI

Gemini’s stock weakness had already raised analyst concerns earlier in 2026.

Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen downgraded GEMI from Neutral to Sell in March and cut his price target from $13 to $5.50. The American multinational investment bank cited weaker user activity, restructuring, and concerns about how long the business would take to reach profitability.

At the time, the analyst pushed his estimate for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) breakeven to 2029.

The latest $5.81 closing price leaves GEMI only slightly above Citi’s $5.50 target despite Friday’s 31% rally.

Gemini Still Operates a Broader Crypto Platform

Despite the decline in its public-market valuation, Gemini remains an active crypto platform offering trading, custody, staking, and other digital asset services.

Readers who want to explore the exchange can access it through UseTheBitcoin’s Gemini partner link. Get $15 in Bitcoin when you trade $100.

The potential acquisition value discussed by analysts and investors therefore extends beyond Gemini’s current stock price. A buyer would also acquire an operating platform, compliance infrastructure, licenses, and an existing user base.

What Comes Next

The main question is whether takeover speculation develops into anything concrete.

No bidder has been announced, and there is no evidence of active negotiations. The immediate focus will instead remain on Gemini’s operating results, trading activity, and whether management can stabilize the shrinking exchange business.

GEMI’s September 18 rebound shows that the market can react quickly when sentiment improves, but the stock remains approximately 79% below its IPO price.

A future buyer could view the company’s $753 million market value as an opportunity to acquire regulatory infrastructure that would take years to recreate. Whether Gemini’s founders would entertain such a transaction remains unknown.

What this means for you: Gemini’s falling valuation has made its licenses, custody infrastructure, and customer relationships a bigger part of the takeover discussion, but no acquisition process is confirmed. The next signal would be an actual bid or disclosure from Gemini rather than speculation around its depressed stock price.