Bernstein cut its Circle price target to $140 from $190 on July 29, 2026, while keeping its Outperform rating on the stablecoin issuer. Analyst Gautam Chhugani told clients that the Open USD consortium, which has pressured Circle’s stock since its June launch, poses a smaller long-term threat than the market currently prices in. The new target still implies about 118% upside from Circle’s July 28 close of $64.32, according to Bernstein’s note.
Why Bernstein Sees the Open USD Threat Fading
Bernstein’s note previews a broadly flat second quarter for Circle, The Block reported. USDC supply ended Q2 at roughly $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1, though reserve income still held near $655 million.
Chhugani argues the fear is overblown: Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with several firms inside the 140-member Open USD consortium, including Kakao, Samsung and BNY.
He pointed to an earlier comment from a Samsung official, who said the company held no formal consultations on Open USD, and to Visa management’s comment that it intends to stay multi-coin and multi-chain rather than back one stablecoin. Not every analyst agrees. Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform on July 15, cutting its own target to $50 over the same reserve-income risk, according to CoinDesk.
The clearest near-term drag is the Hyperliquid deal Circle and Coinbase struck in May, sharing about 90% of reserve income on USDC held on the exchange. Those balances have grown from $5 billion to more than $6 billion since mid-May, and the full margin hit does not land until the third quarter.
What the Target Cut Means for Stablecoin Watchers
Bernstein cut its year-end 2026 USDC supply estimate by 37% to $83 billion, while keeping its 10-year growth assumption at 32%. Investors following broader crypto market news can watch whether Circle’s Q2 earnings, due in the coming weeks, confirm that softer trajectory.
The Q3 Test for Circle’s Hyperliquid Deal
Circle also picked up a regulatory boost on July 10, winning final OCC approval to operate Circle National Trust, which shifts its reserve custody from a state-by-state patchwork to one federal framework, Decrypt reported. Whether that standing helps Circle hold USDC’s share once Open USD fully launches later this year is the next thing analysts will be watching.
What This Means for You
If you hold USDC or are weighing a stablecoin for payments, Bernstein’s note signals that Wall Street still views Circle’s regulatory footing as durable, even with a new rival on the table.
The cut reflects lower growth assumptions, not a change to Circle’s business, so it doesn’t change how USDC works as a dollar-backed token today. If you hold CRCL shares directly, weigh Bernstein’s bullish read against Mizuho’s far more cautious one before treating either target as settled.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
