Key Takeaways

• Sam Bankman-Fried has ramped up social media praise for Donald Trump while slamming Joe Biden’s crypto policies.

• The pivot comes just days after Caroline Ellison was released from federal custody, fueling pardon rumors.

• Prediction markets like Polymarket only give a 17% chance of a Trump-issued pardon for SBF before 2027.

It’s the plot twist no one saw coming: Sam Bankman-Fried is now a Trump fan. After years of being one of the Democrats’ biggest financial backers, the man behind the FTX collapse has taken to social media to talk up the very president he used to spend millions to defeat. The timing is hard to ignore, too—it happened right as his former partner, Caroline Ellison, walked free from prison.

Most people aren’t buying the “new” SBF, though. The general consensus is that this is a “hail mary” legal strategy. Since he’s currently staring down a 25-year prison term, sucking up to the newly inaugurated Trump administration seems like a blatant attempt to land a presidential pardon. It’s a bold, some might say desperate, move to trade political loyalty for a way out of a jail cell.

Bankman-Fried calls Trump’s arrest of Maduro “smart” and “gutsy”

SBF is definitely trying to flip the script from behind bars. His latest posts on X are less about “effective altruism” and more about playing high-stakes politics. He’s out there calling the Maduro arrest a “smart move” while taking massive swipes at Joe Biden, claiming world leaders were essentially “over” the old administration.

The real kicker? He’s pinning the entire “crypto winter” on Gary Gensler. SBF claims Gensler’s era—which finally ended in early 2025—was a total “bungled” mess that held the industry back. It’s a pretty transparent attempt to burn his old bridges and cozy up to the new “common sense” vibe in D.C.

Prediction platform odds for a Bankman-Fried pardon sit at 17%

SBF is trying hard to pivot into a “Trump loyalist” role, but the betting markets are basically rolling their eyes. Even with the administration’s pro-crypto shift and Paul Atkins now leading the SEC, traders on Polymarket are only giving him a 17% shot at a pardon by 2027. Let’s be real: the optics of pardoning a guy convicted on seven counts of massive fraud are a total nightmare.

While he might be picking up some steam with fringe groups on social media, the legal walls are closing in as his appeal sits in the Second Circuit. That 17% isn’t a vote of confidence; it’s a sign the market thinks the law is going to win this round, no matter how many “MAGA-friendly” posts he manages to fire off from his cell.

Final Thoughts

Watching SBF attempt a political “U-turn” from a prison cell is peak 2026. Whether Trump views him as a “crypto martyr” or a liability is the billion-dollar question.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is SBF supporting Donald Trump now?
Most analysts believe SBF is angling for a presidential pardon or a commuted sentence following his appeal.

Is Caroline Ellison still in prison?
No, she was released in early 2026 after serving 440 days for her role in the FTX collapse.

Who is the current SEC Chair?
Paul Atkins was sworn in by President Trump in April 2025, succeeding Gary Gensler.