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IOTA Price Prediction 2018 — Bearish Analysis on BTC Trading Pair

· 07 Dec 2018 in Analysis

[updated December 5, 2018]  IOTA was developed by a German team and created to support the Internet of Things (IoT) revolution, using an innovative blockchain system called “tangle”. It was created to enhance communications, transactions, and payments between machines (i.e. M2M interaction).

Considering the speed with which artificial intelligence is gaining global adoption, IOTA is and was ahead of its time when it was conceived. Part of IOTA’s unique features is that it is one of the few altcoins that cannot be mined, has no blocks, and has no chains. It comes with infinite scalability and very fast transaction times, which give it an advantage over the Bitcoin blockchain, for instance.

Still, IOTA has been held to the same whims as the rest of the cryptomarkets; a big swing up in 2017 and early 2018 and then a big fall down for the last four months. The team continues to add partners and use cases which make IOTA a popular headline on our site and others. And there are a lot of bullish technologists that see IOTA’s tech as superior to many others on the market.

Still, for IOTA’s price to truly recover from its 2018—where it started around $3.61 and now trades for just over $.5—more time is needed. The partnerships need to coalesce, and the chain itself needs to showcase its ease and speed through millions of transactions.

With IOTA still tied to Bitcoin, and partnerships in their nascent stage, IOTA’s price is not likely to have an upswing on its own in 2018. Beyond this year, it could make the kind of changes to the world of logistics and IoT processes that it purports to be able to do. But that’s looking down the road.

In 2018, we don’t see IOTA gaining much room on its BTC ratio—and staying within a 10-20% line of its Satoshi ratio. So IOTA’s year-end price will be up to the market’s reaction and trading with Bitcoin BTC. At a current satoshi value of 8,500–IOTA should trade within 7,000 and 10,000, a number that would, if BTC stays at current prices through 2018, put a year-end IOTA price prediction between $.4 and $.62.

Based on the technical analysis in this article, IOTA price looks likelier to heard toward 40 cents than up from its current place.

IOTA Prepares for the Bull Market

During bearish periods, crypto experts advise projects to build the necessary infrastructure to really make their product applicable. And this is what IOTA and its team are doing.

At the moment, the IOTA community is working hard in order to have different products launched. To start, Trinity Wallet is being used and touted by IOTA enthusiasts. The Trinity Wallet works to establish a go-to and secure wallet for holding coins; an easy on-ramp for future holders to get into IOTA investing. This is a wallet addition to the already established method of storing IOTA on the Ledger wallet, which you can find more information about here.

The second important project that is being developed is a new digital ID. The world is moving into digitizing everything, including personal information. IOTA’s team is working in an important digital ID solution that will use its “tangle” technology. Although there is no official timeline for this project, developers are implementing Verifiable Claims Protocols to improve their services.

Captura de pantalla 2018 09 10 a las 16.08.10

The ID project that is being developed is just one of the several projects that IOTA has signed with different car manufacturers.

There are several other projects in the works involving IOTA. For example, some countries such as Sweden and Netherlands are working with IOTA to improve different administrative processes.

The Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank), for instance, wants to launch the digital version of the Swedish Krona. The e-Krona will be based on IOTA and might be launched in 2019.

Additionally, two companies in the Netherlands, ICTU and XURUX, are investing in a project to verify legal documents within the ‘IOTA Blockchain.’

Projects like this boost IOTA’s standing as one of the more “practical” and “applicable” crypto assets. Its technology has shown potential benefits for these different sectors, and the bear market isn’t stopping IOTA from creating value.

ENGIE Lab

In another recent move worth mentioning, ENGIE Lab Crigen has partnered with IOTA Foundation. The two companies will work on a blockchain based smart energy ecosystem. In the partnership, ENGIE will use its computer and artificial science to enhance IOTA tangle. According to an official blog post, the team will learn from each other through experimentations.

The IOTA blogpost further revealed that the two firms had signed an agreement to establish a cooperation deal between them. They will initiate smart energy systems made of two fundamental tools. The first, to manage server-based blockchain infrastructure and creation of cloud base systems. The other, focus on improving smart contracts.

Per the announcement, the company is primarily targeting the Asian market and intends to roll out the services before next year. ENGIE will further extend its services to southern Europe before May 2019. While making the announcement, Yves Le Gelard, ENGIEs vice president, expressed his delight by saying that:

“We are excited to be part of this program, which will make it possible for many actors to access the blockchain technology. It is a perfect example to show how ENGIE is digitally transforming the society,”

In the announcement post, Phillippe Calvez, a Lab Research Manager, commented that:

“Most proofs-of-concept and activities have already been initiated in the lab and thus we look forward to collaborate with larger international projects. The partnership will enlighten more people on the benefits of using innovative DLT technologies.”

Technical Analysis on IOTA Price

The IOTA/BTC pair is pushing against a long-term support area, after a slow but measured downward move from the price levels identified in the previous analysis piece for this pair. In comparison to some of the major crypto pairings, price action has not been as prolific as one would expect, as the price change between last week’s levels and this week’s price has not been so large. So what is the outlook for this pair as November 2018 comes to an end?

Technical Outlook

The price support level that IOTA is pushing against was first attained in October 2017, well before the price spikes of Q1 2018. This is the level where IOTA price has been almost the entire month. We can see this from the weekly chart below.

image2 11

IOTA/BTC Weekly Chart: November 27, 2018

With price having tested this support area several times, we look at the daily chart to see if there are any clues as to what direction traders will send prices to. To get a really clear and total picture, the chart is compressed using the zoom tool on Tradingview so as to get a picture of daily price action for the last one year.

image1 13

IOTA/BTC Daily Chart: November 27, 2018

The following can be noticed on the daily charts:

  1. The 50-EMA line continues to play its time-tested role of being a dynamic resistance line. This 50-EMA line merges with the upper border of the descending triangle seen to the right side of the chart.
  2. The price action of the last two months is encapsulated into a descending triangle, with price action located right at the apex of the triangle.
  3. The lower border of the descending triangle is part of the support line at 0.00006982. The next support area is at 0.00001069, which is the site of a previous low that occurred in November 2017.

Armed with these points, we can now identify the possible plays that will be seen in the few weeks that remain of 2018.

Trade Scenario 1

With price action pushing very hard against the support, and with the price candles also very close to the apex of the descending triangle, a downside breakout looks imminent. The 50-EMA line is also providing additional resistance to any upside price moves. If the bearish sentiment in the market continues, this may be the scenario we may witness within the next two weeks. If price does break the 0.00006982 support line, this will open the door for price to chase the medium term support below it at 0.00001069.

Trade Scenario 2

The only thing that would cause price to move against the technical outcome of the descending triangle would have to be some string market news which would re-infuse positive sentiment among traders. This would also have to be accompanied by an increase in buying volume. With the sentiment in the market being quite negative, this may be a tall order. However, nothing can be ruled out.

A more reasonable scenario would be found within the triangle pattern itself. The triangle is expanded on the chart so you can see the price action within it. It is possible that the price may still touch the slanting upper triangle border once more before making the journey down south that may take it into breakout territory.

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The key element of technical analysis is to trade exactly what is seen on the charts. In other words, price must first close below the 0.00006982 support line before short orders can be initiated to trade along the direction of the break.

Market Sentiment for IOTA Price

The long-term, mid-term and short-term outlook of IOTA price is:

  • Long-Term – bearish
  • Mid-term – bearish

The long-term and medium-term market outlook on the weekly chart is bearish, because of the negative market sentiment, a lack of positive news for IOTA as well as the technical pattern which is expected to end in a downside break of the support line.

Please note: This analysis piece was performed with information taken from both weekly and daily charts, where a signal candle takes a whole week or a whole day to form. Therefore, the trade scenarios described above may take a long time before the price moves fall into place.

Learn More

Learn how you can buy MIOTA on Binance with info in our guide, as well as one on how to store MIOTA on Ledger.

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