XRP traded near $1.03 to $1.04 on August 10, 2026, holding just above its $1.00 psychological support while a delayed CLARITY Act vote, now scheduled for mid-September, keeps the token stuck in a tight, low-conviction range.
Why XRP Is Stuck in Neutral Territory
XRP has spent the past several days trading in a narrow band between roughly $1.028 and $1.06. The consolidation has held since November 2024, when the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) case against Ripple Labs was dismissed, triggering a sharp rally, and $1.00 has served as the key psychological floor ever since.
The immediate catalyst keeping traders cautious is regulatory. The CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill, was expected to see Senate action sooner, but has been pushed to a vote scheduled around September 15, since the measure needs 60 votes to advance and Senate Majority Leader John Thune only queued it after the August recess.
Grayscale’s research chief, Zach Pandl, has already said 2026 passage odds look dim given election-year political dynamics. Our earlier coverage of the CLARITY Act’s Senate timeline covers the procedural mechanics behind this delay in more depth.
What the Indicators Show for XRP
Momentum remains weak, as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the high 30s to around 40, while MACD is in negative territory, a combination suggesting rallies are more likely to be sold than to extend.
Price continues to trade beneath a stack of declining moving averages, the 50-day EMA near $1.10, the 100-day EMA near $1.18, and the 200-day EMA near $1.37, all sitting above current price and reinforcing a broader downtrend structure that’s remained in place for weeks.
Whale Accumulation and ETF Demand for XRP
Large XRP holders have added more than 380 million XRP over the past seven days.
Total whale holdings have climbed to roughly 8.1 billion tokens, representing about 13% of XRP’s circulating supply.
Moreover, US-listed XRP spot ETFs have assets under management approaching $1 billion, with cumulative inflows since launch totaling roughly $1.51 billion.
Weekly inflow figures have varied, and a specific recent weekly figure of only $1.01 million stands out as unusually small relative to the broader inflow trend.
What Analysts Are Saying for XRP
Ali Martinez has pointed to two separate signals as potential bullish catalysts. First, the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on XRP’s monthly chart, a signal that preceded a 1,074% rally in April 2020 and a 973% rally in August 2022 over the past six years, though it’s also preceded sharp reversals, including a 57% decline after flashing a sell signal in April 2025.
Martinez has also flagged $1.06 as the level to watch, arguing that a monthly close above it could open the path toward $1.35 and eventually $1.64, while a plunge below it in an earlier call raised the possibility of a drop as low as $0.62.
Long-time XRP analyst Dark Defender also pointed to XRP’s RSI reaching an extreme oversold level after last week’s CLARITY-delay-driven dip, describing the setup as a potential “strongest revival in history” once price clears $1.05
Crypto influencer Gerla cited a bullish RSI divergence and argued a reclaim of $1.08 could trigger “a serious reversal.”
Beyond XRP-specific catalysts, broader macro events this week could add volatility across crypto generally.
July’s US inflation data lands August 12, Wednesday, with analysts expecting the annual rate to ease slightly from June, a print that would likely reinforce expectations the Fed holds rates steady at its September meeting.
Two regional Fed presidents, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, are scheduled to speak August 13 and could further shift those odds.
| Level | Role | Notes |
| $0.62 | Deeper downside target | Possible outcome of a plunge below $1.06 |
| $1.00 | Psychological floor | Defended since November 2024, key level in both bull and bear scenarios |
| $1.028-$1.047 | Recent trading range | Narrow session range as of August 10 |
| $1.05 | Near-term resistance | Downward resistance trendline, first barrier to any bounce |
| $1.06 | Key resistance | Roughly 3 billion XRP transacted at this level |
| $1.08 | Reversal trigger | A reclaim here was described as opening the door to “a serious reversal” |
| $1.10 | 50-day EMA | First major moving-average resistance above the current downtrend line |
| $1.18 | 100-day EMA | Next resistance level if $1.10 clears, ahead of the longer-term 200-day EMA |
| $1.35 | Upside target | If $1.06 clears on a monthly close |
| $1.37 | 200-day EMA | Longer-term resistance |
| $1.64 | Further upside target | Second target if $1.06 clears, following $1.35 |
Bottom Line
XRP’s setup remains two-sided heading into the rescheduled vote on the CLARITY Act.
The bull case rests on continued whale accumulation, all pointing toward $1.06 as the level that could unlock a move toward $1.35 and $1.64.
The bear case rests on a weak technical structure, price trading below every major moving average, a negative MACD, and a regulatory timeline that has already slipped once and could easily slip again.
A failed cloture vote in September would likely send prices back toward a retest of $1.00, while continued range-bound trading between now and then looks like the most probable near-term outcome.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto price predictions are based on analyst estimates and are not guarantees of future performance. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Need a refresher? Here are the questions traders are asking about XRP this week.
Why is XRP stuck below $1.06?
XRP has repeatedly failed to clear $1.06, as it sits directly beneath a stack of declining moving averages and a downward trendline of resistance, while momentum indicators like RSI and MACD remain weak. Roughly 3 billion XRP have changed hands at that level, making it a heavily watched technical barrier rather than an arbitrary number.
What would confirm a real XRP breakout from here?
A monthly close above $1.06 as the trigger that could open a path toward $1.35 and eventually $1.64. A reclaim and hold above $1.08, and separately a push of RSI back above 50, have also been cited by individual analysts as earlier signs of the same shift.
How much XRP have whales bought recently?
Large holders have added more than 380 million XRP over the past seven days, according to on-chain data. Total whale holdings now sit at roughly 8.1 billion tokens, or about 13% of the circulating supply.
Does the CLARITY Act delay change XRP’s outlook?
It removes a near-term catalyst without changing the underlying bull or bear case. The vote is now expected on September 15, and Grayscale’s own research chief has said the odds of passage in 2026 already look dim given election-year politics, meaning any resolution, positive or negative, is now further out than traders had been positioning for.
Does Ripple’s escrow unlock schedule affect XRP’s price?
It can add pressure, especially if XRP loses its $1.00 support. Ripple’s monthly escrow releases are predictable and typically do not drive price on their own, but they can compound selling pressure when the token is already testing key support.
